Thursday, March 1, 2012

Factory Output Slow..

You would think that with all the current hype that the economy is getting better. A good prediction of how the overall economy is doing is to look at factory orders for durable goods such as refrigerators and computers etc. Looking at the GDP which is how we currently measure economic output it tells a total different story which is factory orders are sharply down. What does this all mean for our economy and more over how is our trade partners affected. The answer will surprise you in the fact that when our output slows the rest of the world feels eventually the same pain as we all do. If you look at prior documented slow GDP you see a pattern of weakness in the rest of the worlds monetary system. Usually the banks are the first to react to these changes as they have the inside information to know how to deal with their own business interest well before you and I know about it. So watch the banks and the Federal Reserve to see if there is any changes in policy which would certainly show a attempt to heading off a financial crisis. A economic slow down allways has some prior individual indications just like if you look at a chart for a popular stock you want to buy.  Taking a deeper look into the economy you see that the current weakness is due to a combination of factors including heavy handed government regulation of business in America. Every time you add a new layer of regulations more businesses in this country fail which slows the GDP because you are losing output. The larger companies are more able to shift to meet the new government demands. However the small business entry is forced to use more creative ways to generate new revenue or fold up permanently. If the backbone of American business which is the mom and pop shops continue to fail at the current attrition rate we can see more of a deeper recession. This is a pending disaster that the government bean counters and the Federal Reserve have not taken into consideration lately. You can not have a soft monetary policy that does not fix the problem which shows a total lack of understanding of all our countries problems. For many decades we in this country have been like a dumb chicken running around on a drunken spending spree and passing the problem to the next generation. It is time to start supporting our own national interests and let the rest of the world sink or swim on it's own. That is the only way we are not going to have a total financial collapse in every sector of our economy. Having a clear understanding of our overwhelming financial mess we are in is no easy task. We in America do what is right by cutting our national debt and supporting ourselves not on credit then we can fix our financial mess sooner. So let's pump up the GDP by getting our financial house in order and pay off the massive debt we have incurred over many decades.

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